This could change when the final numbers come in, but early estimates have Cowboys and Aliens tied with The Smurfs with $36.2M for the weekend. It’s sort of a coup for Smurfs (with an alleged production budget of $110 million vs. $163 for Cowboys and 355 fewer theaters), but there are two ways to read it. The optimistic way would be to say that Hollywood may have finally found a premise too reductive even for Cletus Q. Sixpack. The pessimistic view is that thanks to inflated 3D ticket prices, not even Cowboys and Aliens and James Bond and Indiana Jones and the Iron Man director and Rocket Hands could beat a half-assed adaptation of a cartoon even people my age barely remember.

this weeklast weekTitle
Weekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
2NCowboys & Aliens$36,200,000-3,750-$9,653$36,200,000$163 m
1
1NThe Smurfs$36,200,000-3,395-$10,663$36,200,000$1101
31Captain America: The First Avenger$24,905,000-61.7%3,715-$6,704$116,772,000$1402
42Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2$21,925,000-53.8%4,145-230$5,290$318,460,000$1253
5NCrazy, Stupid, Love.$19,300,000-3,020-$6,391$19,300,000$501
63Friends with Benefits$9,300,000-50.1%2,926-$3,178$38,200,000$352
75Horrible Bosses$7,100,000-40.3%2,510-594$2,829$96,202,000$354
84Transformers: Dark of the Moon$5,970,000-50.5%2,604-771$2,293$337,892,000$1955
96Zookeeper$4,200,000-51.7%2,418-797$1,737$68,731,000$804
107Cars 2$2,301,000-59.3%1,763-905$1,305$182,070,000$2006

You might think the Cowboys and Aliens numbers might be more important, since Smurfs is a kids movie, and kids movies are and probably always will be lowest-common-denominator affairs, but also keep in mind that those “kids movies” you so cavalierly dismiss as someone else’s concern are the films I have to take my dates to.

[chart via BoxOfficeMojo, additional budget numbers via TheNumbers]

After the jump: Fantasy Summer Box Office Standings

Fantasy Box Office Standings:

Vince’s Picks:

1. Harry Potter ($168.5 million opening)
2. X-Men: First Class ($55.1 million)
3. Green Lantern ($53 million)
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
BOMB PICK: The Change Up

Running Total: $276.6 million

Ben’s (The Ear Rapist) Picks:

1. Cars 2 ($66 million)
2. Super 8 ($35.45 million)
3. Zookeeper ($21 million)
4. Friends with Benefits ($18.6)
BOMB PICK: The Smurfs ($110 million budget minus $36.2 million = $73.8 million)

Running Total: $214.85

Brendan’s (Human Giant) Picks:

1. Transformers 3 ($98 million)
2. Captain America ($65 million)
3. Bad Teacher ($31 million)
4. Mr. Popper’s Penguins ($18.2 million)
BOMB PICK: Green Lantern ($200 million production budget minus $53 million gross = $147 million)

Running Total: $359.2 million

Bret’s (Grumpiest Man Alive) Picks:

1. Cowboys and Aliens ($36.2 million)
2. Smurfs ($36.2 million)
3. Spy Kids 4
4. Horrible Bosses ($28 million)
BOMB PICK: Transformers 3 ($195 million budget minus $98 million opening = – $97 million. A surprisingly decent pick).

Running Total: $197.4 million

Ben is now officially out of the running, and unless Spy Kids 4 makes $150 million in its opening weekend, Bret’s done too. Meanwhile, I need Rise of Planet of the Apes plus The Change-Up‘s budget minus opening to be more than $83 million. I see Planet of the Apes doing about $30 to $40, and it’s hard to say what The Change Up will do because we don’t have budget figures yet. It’s tight.