11.16.09 ANOTHER DUMB ‘DO STARS MATTER?’ DEBATE

Every time a big movie flops and a smaller one succeeds, people who cover Hollywood write articles predicting The End of the Movie Star Era! and blah blah blah.  The same article comes out at least twice a year.  But nothing ever changes that much, because movies with people we know in them are always going to get more attention than movies with people we don’t, and because these articles are usually based on a fallacy or on deliberate distortions.  From a Reuters article “Hollywood rethinks use of A-list actors”:

Hollywood studios are now thinking twice about splurging on A-list movie stars and costly productions in reaction to the poor economy, but also because of the surprising success of recent films with unknown actors. After buddy comedy “The Hangover,” a movie with a little-known cast, made $459 million at the global box office this past summer, several films have shown that a great concept or story can trump star appeal when it comes to luring fans.

Ever since it came out I’ve been hearing how The Hangover was a cast of unknowns.  Unknown to who, your grandma?  Zach Galifianakis was a hugely popular comedian and Ed Helms had been on The Office for a year and The Daily Show since 2001.  Bradley Cooper was sort of unknown, but how well do you need to know “the really good-looking guy?”  As your mom will attest, not very.

Aside from Carrey and “Carol,” which cost at least $175 million, A-listers who suffered boxoffice flops recently have included Bruce Willis (”Surrogates”), Adam Sandler (”Funny People”), Will Ferrell (”Land of the Lost”), Eddie Murphy (”Imagine That”) and Julia Roberts (”Duplicity”).

Chances are, you’ve already seen three or four movies starring all those people, and a couple of them weren’t very good.  So when one of their movies comes out, it’s not as big a deal as, say, a movie with that really funny comedian or dude from The Office you haven’t seen in a movie before.  Really, all these articles are saying is that it’s better to cast a star on the way up than it is to cast one on the way down.  Brilliant deduction.  That’s so obvious there might as well be a Dr. Phil episode about it.